Still, 2022 marked the second consecutive decline of the youth unemployment. PDF Namibia - African Economic Outlook Overview Namibia is a higher-middle-income country with an estimated annual GDP per capita of US$5,828 but has extreme inequalities in income distribution and standard of living. As such, even a . The act provide for the development for the National statistic system and provide for its component and objectives; to establish the Namibia Statistic Agency and the Board of the Namibia Statistics Agency and provide for their power and functions. Mapped: Unemployment Forecasts, by Country in 2023 Phelps, E. S. (1967). How Fiscal Policy Affects Non-Oil Economic Performance in Azerbaijan? Tafirenyika Sunde is a PhD Student at the University of South Africa. Nautwima, J.P. & Asa, A.R. (Pdf) Unemployment and Factors Affecting Unemployment in Developing Precisely, a unit increment in the inflation rate is associated with a reduction of 14% in the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate in Namibia remains high. This multi-dimensional poverty index report is another milestone in directing the process of National Development Planning and adds value . Asides from that, Dritsaki and Dritsaki (2013) investigated the relationship between inflation and unemployment in Greece using annual data from 1980 to 2010 to examine the long-run relation for the case of Greece. This will give proper guidelines to policymakers in formulating and assimilating policies intended to tackle inflation and unemployment when they know where the issue is deriving from. The. These results correspond to the findings of Shifotoka (2015) who observed an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, yet against those of Ogbokor (2005), who found the Namibian economy exhibiting stagflation. Lastly, the t-statistic tests the null hypothesis where the coefficient of zero for the regressor implies that it has no effect on the regressand. Namibia . The pairwise granger causality indicates that causality relationship does not exist between any of the fiscal policy variables and economic growth. Unemployment refers to the share of the labor force that is without work but available for and seeking employment. Where Inf represents inflation, Unemp is unemployment, and t is time period. The quantity of labor demanded, Le, equals the quantity supplied. Learning Objectives Explain how unemployment is measured in the United States. The ARDL Bound testing show the existence of long-run relationship among the examined variables in both the two models, with corresponding F-statistic values of 7.62 and 6.67, respectively. For a description of the new survey and other changes introduced in the method of counting unemployment, see Janet L. Norwood and Judith M. Tanur, Unemployment Measures for the Nineties,. The results support the hypothesis that government expenditure and money supply can be used to contain unemployment. This page provides values for Youth Unemployment Rate reported in several countries. Statistically significant relationships between returns on FTSE 100, S&P 500 market indexes and macroeconomic variables with emphasis on unconventional monetary Policy. Keywords: Phillips Curve, Inflation, Unemployment, Unit Root, OLS, Granger, Namibia. PDF Space-time Modelling of Unemployment Rate in Namibia a Thesis Submitted The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines a person as unemployed if he or she is not working but is looking for and available for work. So, they looked at the contribution of temporary layoffs to the unemployment rate during the recent recession compared to the situation in the four recessions before 1990. The paper is taken from the author's PhD thesis. Namibia unemployment rate for 2020 was 21.45%, a 1.46% increase from 2019. Asides from that, Samuelson and Solow (1960) elucidated that the existing trade-off between the variables is unsustainable since the Phillips Curve has a high probability of shifting. The analysis of fluctuations in the unemployment rate, and the governments responses to them, will occupy center stage in much of the remainder of this book. Economic activity may be booming in one region and slumping in another. The supply curve is drawn as upward sloping, though steep, to reflect studies showing that the quantity of labor supplied at any one time is nearly fixed. Research Tools for Primary and Secondary Research, Useful and Reliable Article Sources for Researchers, How to Organize the Format of Your Writing, Argumentative Versus Persuasive. Youth unemployment rate reported all time low in 1994 with 32% from 19.4% of total unemployment and all time high in 2008 with total youth unemployment rate of 59.9% from 37.6% of total unemployment the cause of this high rate in 2008 was caused by the global economic crises and the closing down of mining operations and some manufacturing indust. Stiff competition in the service industry like banking sector has forced banks to search for, Humans made up of different races, tribes, nations, and religions. Over the past five years, the Namibian economy registered an average growth rate of 4.3 percent. The numbers of employees in this sector between 2018 and 2021 represent a minute fraction of the Namibian population, which was 2,632,885 as of 2022, based on Worldometers . On the other hand, a 1% increase in direct income tax leads to a fall of 6.83% in national output. The BLS did not get around to fixing the surveyasking women the same question it asked menuntil 1994. Universitat Wein Press. Namibia statistics Agency - Lo Fo Svey. This was outlandish yet good news to the policymakers, on the other hand, knowing that both inflation and unemployment rates cannot be concurrently high. This was confirmed with reliability and stability tests using the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation L.M. In Year 2 the total labor force numbers 23.4 million workers; therefore the unemployment rate is 2.4/23.4 = 10.3%. A pairwise Granger causality test was used to establish the causal relationship between inflation and unemployment. The results show that all the variables were stationary at level forms, implying the absence of the long-run relationship between the variables. Friedman, N. (1968). While the former measures the effects of economic growth, the latter accounts for the effects of economic stability. Mapped: IMF unemployment forecasts by country for 2023 | World Economic Investigating the relationship between the bank rate, unemployment and inflation: The Phillips Curve in Namibia. Development of Namibia's 3rd Employment Policy to benefit from UN Unemployment, youth total (% of total labor force ages 15-24) (modeled We are, however, of the opinion that a well both monetary and fisca. Estimating the US Phillips Curve: Applied time series analysis. As expected, direct income tax is inversely related and statistically significant in determining economic growth in the long run. Based on these results, the study recommends the adoption of tax policies that would spur growth instead of retarding growth with a wide margin, as has been observed from the study. In the United States, the legislation authorizing the pact also provided for job training programs for displaced U.S. workers. Although government programs may reduce frictional and structural unemployment, they cannot eliminate it. 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Rising Unemployment in Nigeria: Public Debt to the Rescue, Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Nigeria: ARDL and NARDL Techniques, The Nexus between Consumer Confidence and Economic Growth in South Africa: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach, THE EFFECT OF MONETARY POLICY ON GENERAL PRICE LEVEL IN GHANA, Impact Of Monetary Policy Instruments On Balance Of Payments In Nigeria. URL: https://doi.org/10.18775/ijied.1849-7551-7020.2015.75.2001, 1Johanna Pangeiko Nautwima, 2Asa Romeo Asa, 1Namibia Business School, There are several difficulties with the survey. Statistics Agency, Windhoek, Namibia. Background: Money supply, inflation, and capital expenditure along with others are major issues of consideration for policymakers in developing countries given the need to spark internal demand and to encounter the government's massive fiscal obligations to alleviate poverty and achieve sustainable economic growth. Also, the granger causality results show bidirectional causation between GDP, total government expenditure and broad money supply. To achieve these objectives, the study used a Fully Bayesian (FB) spatial smoothing approach with temporal . Namibia - Unemployment Rate $80.00 Add To Cart % of total labor force 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 16 18 20 22 24 26 NaN% Namibia: Unemployment Rate Series Information Namibia: Labor Release Information Description Namibia Unemployment Rate 2023 & Employment Data | Take-profit.org Economic calendar Brokers Promotions EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY Gold Oil SP500 XAUUSD: Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 26.08.2022 - 02.09.2022 WTI Crude Oil: Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 26.08.2022 - 02.09.2022 Also, the study used the interpolation method to remove the data inconsistency for unemployment between the periods that were not readily available in any data source. The impact of inflation on financial development. This study comes at an important time in Nigeria when the economy just exited a recession and is still experiencing low production and rising unemployment. Abstract: This study intended to empirically validate the applicability of the Phillips Curve in Namibia since independence, using semi-annual time series data, and taking into account the periods of the annus horribilis . Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, This paper examines how government expenditure and money supply affect unemployment in Namibia. Godinic, D., Obrenovic, B. Then, the authors examined job flows in 70 industries. Thus, the study recommends further investigations to delve deeper into the determinants of inflation and unemployment in Namibia. PDF Namibia QER Q4 2020 In a nutshell, the relationship between inflation and unemployment is inconclusive for the Namibian economy. Y oung Americans are enduring staggeringly high rates of joblessness. Email: tsunde@nust.na. Inclusively, the ideology of all economists covered in the literature presented in this study conclude that the trade-off of the Phillips Curve is only applicable in the short run but not in the long run, and different Phillips Curves vary with the rate of inflation since fluctuations in inflation expectations have the potential to shift the Phillips Curve. The problem of understating unemployment among women has been fixed, but others remain. May 12, 2023 The unemployment rate in Namibia decreased to 20.85 percent since the previous year. Shaari, M. S., Abdullah, D. N. C., Razali, R., Luqman, M., & Saleh, A. M. (2017). During recessions, highlighted in Figure 5.6 Unemployment Rate, 19602011, the part of unemployment that is cyclical unemployment grows. If the answer is no, the surveyor asks if that person has looked for work at some time during the previous four weeks and is available for work at the time of the survey. DOES THE EXPORT-LED GROWTH (ELG) HYPOTHESIS HOLD FOR SERVICES EXPORTS IN NIGERIA, FISCAL OPERATIONS AND MACROECONOMIC GROWTH: THE NIGERIAN EXPERIENCE. Lastly, Granger causality test was employed to determine the causal relationship between the variables. This means a decline of 0.4 percentage points in 2022. %. At each of these randomly selected households, the surveyor asks about the employment status of each adult (everyone age 16 or over) who lives there. They argue that during the recession permanent rather than temporary layoffs predominated and that it takes longer for firms to hire workers into new positions than to hire them back into former jobs. In Year 1 the total labor force includes 22 million workers, and so the unemployment rate is 2/22 = 9.1%. While unemployment was very low in the beginning of the twentieth century, fluctuations were observed through two recessions in 1915 and 1921 (ILOSTAT database 2021). (1958). Based on these findings, the study recommends policymakers to adopt a policy mix, skewed to reducing unemployment predominately among the youth since the issues cannot be addressed simultaneously. The government may attempt to reduce frictional unemployment by focusing on its source: information costs. The analysis reveals a significant long-run inverse relationship of government spending on healthcare with fertility rate, infant mortality rate and under-5 mortality rate. His results show an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. For an economy to produce all it can and achieve a solution on its production possibilities curve, the factors of production in the economy must be fully employed. Namibia Statistics Agency (2015): Analysis of Youth Employment and Unemployment in Namibia 2012-2013. The trend revealed . The Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment in Namibia Within the Framework of the Phillips Curve. Interest rates were cut from 6.5% in January to 3.75% in August and remained at that level until the end His results invalidated the Phillips curve notion by showing a direct relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short run that reflects the presence of stagflation. Published by the Namibia Statistics Agency P.O. is one in which jobs are relocated from some industries to others, not reclaimed by the same industries that lost them earlier.. In figure 2.1b, the vertical slope presents the long-run Phillips Curve, implying the absence of a trade-off . In short, both Friedman (1968); and Phelps (1967) have individually dared the theoretical underpinnings of the Phillips Curves admiration as a guide to policy. Copy link Link copied. More, approximately 10.21% of the systematic variation in the regressand is accounted for by the predictors. Unlocking Namibia's economic growth and opportunities in 2023 The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which created a free trade region encompassing Mexico, the United States, and Canada, has created some structural unemployment in the three countries. Another reason there can be unemployment even if employment equals its natural level stems from potential mismatches between the skills employers seek and the skills potential workers offer. This invalidates the notion of the Phillips Curve to the Greek economy. Explain why, in this example, both the number of people employed and the unemployment rate increased. Relate the natural level of employment to the natural rate of unemployment. The results show an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, indicating that the U.S. economy corresponds to the Phillips Curve. Behera, J., & Mishra, A. K. (2017). MPRA Paper 98804, University Library of Munich. Examination of macroeconomic policy in future chapters will return to this issue. Unemp = _0 + _1 Inf, where _0 is the constant while _1 represents the coefficient of the variables. The VECM analysis indicates that capital expenditure and recurrent expenditure are positively related and statistically significant in determining economic growth in the long run. More, the linear regression equations were specified as follow: Finally, Granger causality analysis was expected to follow one of the four possible outcomes of the Granger causality test, constituting: The unit root test was performed to determine whether the data were stationary or non-stationary, using the Augmented Dickey Fuller test (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (P.P.) It is therefore advised that fiscal and monetary policies need to be well coordinated to bring fiscal deficit within acceptable level. Golden the US$ 3 TRILLION HEIST, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0. In principle, whether unemployment rate in the country is at 51 percent, 15 percent, 10 percent or even 5 percent, it is still unemployment which denies Namibians food on their tables. Public policy responses to structural unemployment generally focus on job training and education to equip workers with the skills firms demand. IMF Survey: Sharp rise in unemployment from global recession. Journal of Social Sciences, 1(4), 243-245. Figure 5.4 Computing the Unemployment Rate. GDP adjusts to its long run equilibrium when there is a shock at a slow speed of 3.07%. The effect of economic growth in relation to Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research, 18(2), 1-9. https://www.semanticscholar.org. When the labor market is in equilibrium, employment is at the natural level and the unemployment rate equals the natural rate of unemployment. If information about the labor market were costless, firms and potential workers would instantly know everything they needed to know about each other and there would be no need for searches on the part of workers and firms. By using our site, you agree to our collection of information through the use of cookies. Chapter 1: Economics: The Study of Choice, Chapter 2: Confronting Scarcity: Choices in Production, Chapter 4: Applications of Demand and Supply, Chapter 5: Macroeconomics: The Big Picture, Chapter 6: Measuring Total Output and Income, Chapter 7: Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply, Chapter 9: The Nature and Creation of Money, Chapter 10: Financial Markets and the Economy, Chapter 13: Consumptions and the Aggregate Expenditures Model, Chapter 14: Investment and Economic Activity, Chapter 15: Net Exports and International Finance, Chapter 17: A Brief History of Macroeconomic Thought and Policy, Chapter 18: Inequality, Poverty, and Discrimination, Chapter 20: Socialist Economies in Transition, Appendix B: Extensions of the Aggregate Expenditures Model, Figure 5.4 Computing the Unemployment Rate, Figure 5.5 The Natural Level of Employment, Figure 5.6 Unemployment Rate, 19602011, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. We discuss these various sources of unemployment below. The Namibian Mariculture: Productivity, Challenges and Opportunities To estimate the unemployment rate, government surveyors fan out across the country each month to visit roughly 60,000 households. Thus, an increase in the real wage induces a relatively small increase in the quantity of labor supplied. The authors suggest three possible reasons for the recent increased role of structural change: (1) The structural decline in some industries could be the result of overexpansion in those industries during the 1990s. Namibia: Youth unemployment rate from 2003 to 2022 Comparing the 2 Types of Academic Writing Styles, Very Quick Academic Writing Tips and Advices, Top 4 Quick Useful Tips for Your Introduction. Oba, E. O., & Enoh, O. H. (2020): A validation of the Phillips Curve hypothesis in Nigeria: A quarterly data-based approach. The role of monetary policy. Daffodil International University Journal of Business and Economics, 5(1 & 2), 33-53. Source: Economic Report of the President, 2012, Table B-42. Namibia Labour Force Survey 2014 Report. (2020). This independent country programme evaluation covers the programme cycle to date (2019-2022). Want to create or adapt books like this? This led to the conclusion that there is no causal relationship between the variables, implying that they are independent. Thus, they presented the Phillips Curve as a stable and exploitable relationship that plays a substantial role in inflationary policy advancement (Forder, 2010). Improve the "labour market" flexibility. Making your research visible helps you leap into new research opportunities. But information is costly. Objective: The principal objective of the study is to explore the association between money supply, inflation, capital expenditure, and economic growth in Nepal. The unit root test was applied for stationarity testing of the data, while the OLS model was used to analyze the relationship between inflation and unemployment for the Namibian economy. There is an urgent need to ensure that appropriate fiscal operations are conducted and do not result in excess liquidity beyond the absorptive capacity of the economy. A Var analysis of the connection between FDI and economic growth: A Case study from Vietnam after 30 years reforms. The uncertainty created by the war in Iraq and the imposition of new accounting standards following the Enron-like scandals may have further prolonged the creation of new jobs. According to the Namibia Statistics Agency (2018), the unemployment rate in Namibia increased to 33.4 percent in 2018 from 27.4 percent in 2012. Economy of Namibia - Wikipedia Samuelson, P. A., & Solow R. M. (1960). It is sometimes referred to as full employment. Namibia University of Science and Technology.

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